Interest Rate Watch – 01 December 2008
Well, last week we had some good news about consumer inflation. According to Statistics SA said that inflation has eased for a second month in a row.
Economists expect that the Reserve Bank will cut rates early in 2009 by at least 50 basis points. They also predict that a further rate cut of 200 basis points will follow during 2009.
The reason for all this good news was because of fuel prices easing and the effect on inflation seems to have been positive. Food prices, according to Nedbank, have now peaked so this should indicate that we should soon see better times returning.
People are saying that the weak Rand could possibly have a negative effect on inflation, but Nedbank says they don’t think so and expect inflation to decline further in November and a possible decrease to under 10% early next year.
It seems that even though everybody has positive feelings for next year, economists think that we will not see a interest rate cut this December. If they don’t cut rates now, the chances are pretty good that we will see a cut in February.
As I always say, only time will tell. If all this good news is true for next year, I see a prosperous outlook for property investors, if they planned correctly and were able to weather the storm.
Important dates to remember this month:
- 10 & 11 December 2008 - Monetary Policy Committee meeting











Another reason for the good news is… THE WORLD IS IN RESSESSION!!!!
and we don’t need high interest rates anymore to stop spending.
I am hoping for at least 1%-2% cut next week. Just look at what is happening all over the world. Everyone is not cutting, but slashing interest rates. And some of them are going all the way down to 0% (USA, UK, Jap, maybe EUR as well). Will SA go to 0%? I don’t think so, but we are going lower than our previous low of 10.5%… and soon.
These economists are very clever, especially after the deed.
They are so scared to say what they think. All their answers are ‘yes and no’. I can be one.
As you say doublef, time will tell. I am very glad that we reached the top of this i-rate cycle.
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